Track record · closed signal

Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (SAN) — closed signal from February 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 21, 2026 — -1.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.20 – $12.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.54Published — price the day we called it

$13.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-1.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.33

last close inside the window, ended May 21, 2026

Peak price

$13.24

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.79

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.20 – $12.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.54

published February 20, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Santander recently fell more than usual and may bounce back in the next few months because UK mortgage-rate cuts could make banks more willing to lend. This is a short-term, sentiment-driven trade. That means gains may be quick but fragile-use small positions and be ready to exit if the market turns negative.

Primary drivers

UK mortgage-rate cuts may boost demand for bank loans
Recent drop suggests a short-term bounce is possible
Diversified retail and commercial business gives steady revenue paths
Trade relies on market mood, so control risk tightly

How it played out

SAN: bounce stopped short of target

Lyra published SAN at 12.54 on 2026-02-20. The thesis expected 10% growth in a short-term window. It pointed to UK mortgage-rate cuts that may boost loan demand, a recent drop that made a bounce possible, Santander's diversified retail and commercial business, and a trade that depended on market mood.

The stock rose early, but not far enough. It peaked at 13.24 on 2026-02-25, a 5.6% gain, while the target was 13.79. It never got there. By 2026-05-21, SAN ended at 12.33. The thesis partly played out, then faded before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-23, Santander said it would pause its share buyback from 2026-04-24 to 2026-05-26 because of the Webster transaction. On 2026-04-29, Santander reported first-quarter profit of 5.455 billion euros, up 60%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SAN signals