Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from February 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 21, 2026 — +25.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$309.32 Published $358.81 Target $387.66 Window close $408.61 Peak
$299.00 – $312.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$309.32Published — price the day we called it
$358.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$408.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$387.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 69 days.

At window close
+25.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+32.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$387.66
last close inside the window, ended May 21, 2026
Peak price
$408.61
peak on May 18, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
69

The thesis — published February 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$358.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$299.00 – $312.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$309.32
published February 20, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet recently fell sharply and is showing signs of a short-term rebound. The new Gemini 3.1 Pro launch keeps interest in the company high and could draw buyers over the next 0 to 3 months if big tech steadies. Trading may be bouncy, so add shares gradually rather than chasing quick jumps and be ready to exit if price weakness continues.

Primary drivers

  • New Gemini 3.1 Pro keeps the company in news and may attract buyers
  • Big recent selloff makes a bounce more likely as traders cover losses
  • Large-cap cash can make quick recoveries once selling eases
  • Overall interest in AI and related stocks will sway price moves

How it played out

GOOGL: target reached in 69 days

Lyra published GOOGL on 2026-02-20 at $309.32 for a short-term window ending 2026-05-21. The thesis expected 16% growth. It pointed to a sharp recent fall, a possible rebound, Gemini 3.1 Pro interest, large-cap cash, and wider interest in artificial intelligence-related stocks.

Inside the window, the stock rose past the $358.81 target and reached $408.61 on 2026-05-18. The target was reached in 69 days. GOOGL ended the window at $387.66. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-29, Alphabet reported Q1 2026 revenue of $109.9 billion, up 22% year over year. The report also said Google Cloud revenue rose 63% to $20 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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