Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 21, 2025
Berkshire’s share price is about 6 percent below its peak, and a well-known market gauge hints the stock looks inexpensive even though investor mood remains very upbeat. With more than 200 billion dollars parked in cash now earning roughly 5 percent interest, profits get a handy lift. Buffett has started putting some of that cash into quicker-growing firms like Domino’s. If demand for sturdy, low-risk companies stays strong, the share price could drift up to 515 dollars, or about 9 percent higher, within three months.
Primary drivers
- An often-used market measure flags the stock as cheap, creating a rare buying window.
- Over 200 billion dollars of cash now earns 5 percent interest, adding easy income.
- Buying Domino’s in July shows Buffett is actively moving money toward faster growth.
- Mix of insurance, rail and utilities spreads risk and softens hits when markets swing.
How it played out
BRK-B: the target was not reached
Lyra published BRK-B at $475.72 on July 21, 2025. The thesis expected about 9 percent growth over three months. It pointed to a market measure that made the stock look inexpensive, over 200 billion dollars in cash earning roughly 5 percent interest, Buffett buying Domino's, and a mix of insurance, rail and utilities that spread risk.
Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach $518.54. Its peak was $507.66 on September 5, 2025, a 6.7 percent gain. It ended the window at $492.42. The thesis partially played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target.
What happened during the window
On August 2, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter operating profits of $11.2 billion and a $3.8 billion write-down tied to Kraft Heinz. The company also reported cash of $344 billion at June 30.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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