Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025 — +3.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 21, 2025
Berkshire’s share price is about 6 percent below its peak, and a well-known market gauge hints the stock looks inexpensive even though investor mood remains very upbeat. With more than 200 billion dollars parked in cash now earning roughly 5 percent interest, profits get a handy lift. Buffett has started putting some of that cash into quicker-growing firms like Domino’s. If demand for sturdy, low-risk companies stays strong, the share price could drift up to 515 dollars, or about 9 percent higher, within three months.
Primary drivers
- An often-used market measure flags the stock as cheap, creating a rare buying window.
- Over 200 billion dollars of cash now earns 5 percent interest, adding easy income.
- Buying Domino’s in July shows Buffett is actively moving money toward faster growth.
- Mix of insurance, rail and utilities spreads risk and softens hits when markets swing.
How it played out
BRK-B: the target was not reached
Lyra published BRK-B at $475.72 on July 21, 2025. The thesis expected about 9 percent growth over three months. It pointed to a market measure that made the stock look inexpensive, over 200 billion dollars in cash earning roughly 5 percent interest, Buffett buying Domino's, and a mix of insurance, rail and utilities that spread risk.
Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach $518.54. Its peak was $507.66 on September 5, 2025, a 6.7 percent gain. It ended the window at $492.42. The thesis partially played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target.
What happened during the window
On August 2, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter operating profits of $11.2 billion and a $3.8 billion write-down tied to Kraft Heinz. The company also reported cash of $344 billion at June 30.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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