Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from February 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 20, 2026 — +1.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$70.00 – $74.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$73.53Published — price the day we called it

$86.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$80.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$74.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$74.60

last close inside the window, ended May 20, 2026

Peak price

$80.82

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$86.77

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$70.00 – $74.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$73.53

published February 19, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber shows signs of investors gradually buying shares, but the price is still bouncing around. Recent news - a $100 million plan for fast-charging robotaxi hubs and a TurboTax promo to drive short-term ride activity - helps the story, though execution could be bumpy. For the next 0-3 months, consider adding shares at lower prices near the low $70s rather than chasing rallies.

Primary drivers

Investment in robotaxi charging could enable future driverless services
TurboTax deal may temporarily increase ride and delivery activity
Large scale in mobility and delivery helps the business withstand shocks
A forming base gives an easier way to add shares with lower risk

How it played out

UBER: the target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 73.53 on Feb 19, with 18% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to gradual investor buying, a $100 million fast-charging robotaxi hub plan, a TurboTax promo, scale in mobility and delivery, and a forming base near the low $70s.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at 80.82 on May 7, a 9.9% gain. That stayed below the 86.77 target, so there were no days to target. It ended at 74.60 on May 20. The thesis partly played out: the stock rose, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On May 6, MarketWatch reported that Uber's first-quarter revenue grew 14% to $13.2 billion, while delivery gross bookings rose 28% to $25.99 billion.

Uber's stock surges as deliveries business shows surprising strength

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UBER signals