Track record · closed signal

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) — closed signal from February 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 20, 2026 — -10% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.30 – $7.60Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.53Published — price the day we called it

$8.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$7.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$6.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-10%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$6.78

last close inside the window, ended May 20, 2026

Peak price

$7.70

peak on February 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.30 – $7.60

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.53

published February 19, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

ORC looks likely to bounce back toward its recent reported net asset value, which is about the current share price. A special dividend announcement could draw buyers seeking yield. Mortgage REITs move fast on interest-rate news, so this is a short-term trade idea for a quick 0-3 month gain rather than a long-term hold.

Primary drivers

Net asset value is close to the share price, limiting downside
A special dividend can bring buyers who want income
Recent weak price action makes a bounce more likely
If interest rates settle, agency mortgage holdings could improve

How it played out

ORC: the target was never reached

Lyra published ORC at 7.53 on February 19, 2026, with 12% expected growth and a target of 8.44. The thesis pointed to net asset value near the share price, a possible special dividend bringing income buyers, weak recent price action setting up a bounce, and agency mortgage holdings improving if interest rates settled.

Inside the window, ORC peaked at 7.70 on February 23, 2026, for a 2.2% gain. It stayed below the 8.44 target. By May 20, 2026, it ended at 6.78. The thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORC signals