Track record · closed signal

Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) — closed signal from February 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 20, 2026 — -37.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HLF price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.60 – $19.90Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.38Published — price the day we called it

$24.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-37.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.16

last close inside the window, ended May 20, 2026

Peak price

$20.40

peak on February 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$24.23

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.60 – $19.90

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.38

published February 19, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Herbalife is likely to move a lot in the near term because recent news caught attention. A famous investor tied to the product and an earnings update showing stronger sales and less debt give the story new life. This makes it a short-term trade idea for a few weeks to three months, but expect big swings and only buy carefully.

Primary drivers

High-profile investor mention raises public interest quickly
Quarterly sales rise and lower debt can change investor view
Price recovery after a drop, but expect big daily moves
If people keep buying after the news, momentum can continue

How it played out

HLF: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published HLF at $19.38 on 2026-02-19 with a short-term thesis for 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a high-profile investor mention, quarterly sales rise, lower debt, price recovery after a drop, and possible momentum if buying continued after the news. It also expected big daily moves.

Inside the window, HLF rose early but did not reach $24.23. Its peak was $20.40 on 2026-02-23, a 5.3% gain. It never got there. By 2026-05-20, the stock ended at $12.16. The thesis missed on the target and the ending price was below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HLF signals