Track record · closed signal

New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from February 19, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 20, 2026 — +3.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NGD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$11.20 – $12.05Entry zone — fair-value band

$11.80Published — price the day we called it

$14.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.16

last close inside the window, ended May 20, 2026

Peak price

$13.52

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.75

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$11.20 – $12.05

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$11.80

published February 19, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

New Gold looks stronger than many peers and has events coming soon that could push the stock. Company previews say recent quarterly gold output rose a lot compared to last year, and upcoming earnings talk keeps investors focused. After a quick price jump and a pullback, the dip may be a chance to buy if the price holds around the low $11s.

Primary drivers

Company says recent quarterly output rose a lot versus last year
Earnings and coverage in the next days can keep buyers interested
Higher gold prices and better mine results improve profit potential
After a fast rise, the pullback could be a short-term buying chance

How it played out

NGD: target was not reached

Lyra published NGD at 11.80 on 2026-02-19 with 25% expected growth and a 14.75 target. The thesis pointed to stronger relative performance, recent quarterly output that the company said rose a lot versus last year, earnings and coverage in the next days, higher gold prices, better mine results, and a pullback after a fast rise.

Inside the 2026-02-19 to 2026-05-20 window, NGD rose to a 13.52 peak on 2026-02-27. That was a 14.6% gain, but it stayed below the 14.75 target. It ended at 12.16. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NGD signals