New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from February 19, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 58% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published February 19, 2026
New Gold looks stronger than many peers and has events coming soon that could push the stock. Company previews say recent quarterly gold output rose a lot compared to last year, and upcoming earnings talk keeps investors focused. After a quick price jump and a pullback, the dip may be a chance to buy if the price holds around the low $11s.
Primary drivers
- Company says recent quarterly output rose a lot versus last year
- Earnings and coverage in the next days can keep buyers interested
- Higher gold prices and better mine results improve profit potential
- After a fast rise, the pullback could be a short-term buying chance
How it played out
NGD: target was not reached
Lyra published NGD at 11.80 on 2026-02-19 with 25% expected growth and a 14.75 target. The thesis pointed to stronger relative performance, recent quarterly output that the company said rose a lot versus last year, earnings and coverage in the next days, higher gold prices, better mine results, and a pullback after a fast rise.
Inside the 2026-02-19 to 2026-05-20 window, NGD rose to a 13.52 peak on 2026-02-27. That was a 14.6% gain, but it stayed below the 14.75 target. It ended at 12.16. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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