Track record · closed signal

Sanofi (SAN) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026 — -6.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.63 Published $13.89 Target $11.78 Window close $13.24 Peak
$12.10 – $12.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.63Published — price the day we called it
$13.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$11.78
last close inside the window, ended May 19, 2026
Peak price
$13.24
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.10 – $12.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.63
published February 18, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Sanofi could be a short-term defensive trade because new study results for duvakitug and updated regulatory filings may make investors more willing to buy healthcare stocks. Those headlines might help the stock recover after a pullback, but the recovery could fade if investors shift back into higher-risk sectors. Start small and only add size if the stock clearly stabilizes and buyers return.

Primary drivers

  • New duvakitug study results could spark buying interest
  • Regulatory updates reduce uncertainty for investors
  • Healthcare can draw money when markets get uncertain
  • Recent weakness makes a rebound more likely if buyers return

How it played out

SAN: rebound stayed below the target

Lyra published SAN at 12.63 on 2026-02-18 as a short-term defensive trade. The thesis expected 10% growth. It pointed to new duvakitug study results, updated regulatory filings, possible demand for healthcare when markets were uncertain, and a rebound after recent weakness if buyers returned.

Inside the window, SAN rose to 13.24 on 2026-02-25, a 4.8% peak gain. The target was 13.89, and the stock never reached it. By 2026-05-19, it ended at 11.78. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-23, Investor's Business Daily reported that Sanofi beat first-quarter 2026 forecasts and reaffirmed its 2026 outlook. The article said Dupixent sales rose 31% to 4.2 billion euros. This was reported during the window, not as a cause of the price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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