Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$133.00 – $139.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$138.53Published — price the day we called it

$173.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$162.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$135.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$162.40

peak on March 24, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+17.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$135.26

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 18, 2026 – May 19, 2026

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$173.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$133.00 – $139.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$138.53

published February 18, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir has momentum now because a well-known analyst raised their view and the company just signed a deal with Rackspace to run its Foundry and AIP tools in real-world customer setups. That deal can make it easier for customers to adopt the software and attract more buyers. The stock is still forming a base, so wait for clear follow-through after pullbacks.

Primary drivers

Analyst upgrade can attract more buyers and improve sentiment
Rackspace deal helps get Foundry and AIP into real customer use faster
General increase in AI software spending supports contract wins
Base-building gives clearer, lower-risk pullback entry points

How it played out

PLTR: rose 17.2%, but never reached target

Lyra published PLTR at 138.53 on 2026-02-18 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to an analyst upgrade, the Rackspace deal for Foundry and artificial intelligence tools, broader software spending tied to artificial intelligence, and base-building after pullbacks.

Inside the window, PLTR peaked at 162.4 on 2026-03-24, for a 17.2% gain. That was below the 173.16 target. It ended the window at 135.26. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but it never reached the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-04, Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year, according to MarketWatch. The article also said the shares fell 2.7% after hours.

Palantir posts its fastest revenue growth ever while calling out 'AI slop'

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals