Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026 — +11.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$356.00 – $370.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$364.75Published — price the day we called it

$430.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$448.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$406.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 77 days.

At window close

+11.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$406.91

last close inside the window, ended May 19, 2026

Peak price

$448.45

peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$430.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$356.00 – $370.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$364.75

published February 18, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials is benefitting from higher chip-equipment spending driven by AI needs. A recent industry report backs the idea that spending could stay strong for several quarters. AMAT has been leading peers, but after a fast rise it's safer to buy if the price pulls back into a normal range instead of chasing gains.

Primary drivers

AI and memory spending is increasing need for equipment
New industry report supports several quarters of spending
Stock can keep outperforming if pullbacks hold steady
More buyers participating raises chance of follow-through

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 77 days

Lyra published AMAT on 2026-02-18 at $364.75, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to higher chip-equipment spending from artificial intelligence and memory demand, an industry report that supported several quarters of spending, steady pullbacks, and broader buyer participation.

Inside the window from 2026-02-18 to 2026-05-19, AMAT reached the $430.40 target in 77 days. It peaked at $448.45 on 2026-05-11, a 22.9% gain. It ended the window at $406.91, below the target but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-14, Applied Materials reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $7.91 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.86 per share. It also raised its semiconductor equipment business outlook to more than 30% growth for the year. On 2026-05-15, Barron's reported that the stock fell in premarket trading after those results and guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals