Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$364.75 Published $430.40 Target $406.91 Window close $448.45 Peak
$356.00 – $370.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$364.75Published — price the day we called it
$430.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$448.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$406.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 77 days.

Peak price
$448.45
peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$406.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
77
Window
February 18, 2026 – May 19, 2026

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$430.40
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$356.00 – $370.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$364.75
published February 18, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials is benefitting from higher chip-equipment spending driven by AI needs. A recent industry report backs the idea that spending could stay strong for several quarters. AMAT has been leading peers, but after a fast rise it's safer to buy if the price pulls back into a normal range instead of chasing gains.

Primary drivers

  • AI and memory spending is increasing need for equipment
  • New industry report supports several quarters of spending
  • Stock can keep outperforming if pullbacks hold steady
  • More buyers participating raises chance of follow-through

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 77 days

Lyra published AMAT on 2026-02-18 at $364.75, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to higher chip-equipment spending from artificial intelligence and memory demand, an industry report that supported several quarters of spending, steady pullbacks, and broader buyer participation.

Inside the window from 2026-02-18 to 2026-05-19, AMAT reached the $430.40 target in 77 days. It peaked at $448.45 on 2026-05-11, a 22.9% gain. It ended the window at $406.91, below the target but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-14, Applied Materials reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $7.91 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.86 per share. It also raised its semiconductor equipment business outlook to more than 30% growth for the year. On 2026-05-15, Barron's reported that the stock fell in premarket trading after those results and guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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