Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$184.00 – $190.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$188.03Published — price the day we called it

$229.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$236.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$220.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 85 days.

Peak price

$236.54

peak on May 14, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+25.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$220.61

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

February 18, 2026 – May 19, 2026

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$229.39

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$184.00 – $190.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$188.03

published February 18, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clear short-term leader because companies keep spending on AI hardware. News that NVIDIA is growing in India makes future sales easier to see, and even when a big investor sold shares the stock kept its path. Reports of smaller stake sales may cause short drops, but core demand for GPUs is strong and trading is easy.

Primary drivers

India deals make near-term demand clearer
GPU leadership lets NVIDIA keep pricing edge
Lots of trading volume makes staged buying possible
Headline-driven selling can create buying chances

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 85 days

Lyra published NVDA at $188.03 on February 18, with a short-term view that expected 22% growth. The thesis pointed to company spending on artificial intelligence hardware, India deals, GPU leadership, high trading volume, and possible headline-driven selling as entry chances. The target was $229.39.

Inside the window, NVDA reached a peak of $236.54 on May 14, with a 25.8% peak gain. It reached the target in 85 days. By the May 19 close, it had eased to $220.61. The thesis played out, because the stock reached the target before the window ended.

What happened during the window

On March 16, Nvidia announced Vera Rubin hardware at GTC 2026. On May 6, Nvidia announced a $500 million investment in Corning tied to fiber optic manufacturing for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals