New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from February 18, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published February 18, 2026
NGD looks set for a short-term trading move as investors focus on the next earnings report. Coverage suggests the company might surprise on the upside again, which encourages traders to buy on dips. The stock recently fell enough to draw bargain hunters, but the bounce must continue to prove itself. Add in stages and keep tight downside limits in case selling resumes.
Primary drivers
- Earnings attention could spark buying interest
- Profit sensitivity to gold and copper prices helps upside moves
- Recent oversold condition can bring back traders
- Active buying shows investors are repositioning, not just drifting
How it played out
NGD: strong move, but target not reached
Lyra published NGD on 2026-02-18 as a short-term trade at 11.11. The thesis expected 24% growth and pointed to earnings attention, profit sensitivity to gold and copper prices, an oversold setup, and active buying. It also said the bounce had to keep proving itself.
Inside the window from 2026-02-18 to 2026-05-19, NGD rose to 13.52 on 2026-02-27. That was a 21.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the 13.77 target. It ended at 12.16. The thesis mostly played out on direction and speed, but it missed the published target. It never got there.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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