Track record · closed signal

New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from February 18, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 19, 2026 — +9.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NGD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.70 – $11.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$11.11Published — price the day we called it

$13.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 90% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+9.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+21.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.16

last close inside the window, ended May 19, 2026

Peak price

$13.52

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.77

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.70 – $11.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$11.11

published February 18, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NGD looks set for a short-term trading move as investors focus on the next earnings report. Coverage suggests the company might surprise on the upside again, which encourages traders to buy on dips. The stock recently fell enough to draw bargain hunters, but the bounce must continue to prove itself. Add in stages and keep tight downside limits in case selling resumes.

Primary drivers

Earnings attention could spark buying interest
Profit sensitivity to gold and copper prices helps upside moves
Recent oversold condition can bring back traders
Active buying shows investors are repositioning, not just drifting

How it played out

NGD: strong move, but target not reached

Lyra published NGD on 2026-02-18 as a short-term trade at 11.11. The thesis expected 24% growth and pointed to earnings attention, profit sensitivity to gold and copper prices, an oversold setup, and active buying. It also said the bounce had to keep proving itself.

Inside the window from 2026-02-18 to 2026-05-19, NGD rose to 13.52 on 2026-02-27. That was a 21.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the 13.77 target. It ended at 12.16. The thesis mostly played out on direction and speed, but it missed the published target. It never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NGD signals