Track record · closed signal

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) — closed signal from February 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 18, 2026 — -10.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ISRG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$480.00 – $495.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$492.54Published — price the day we called it

$551.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$511.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$439.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-10.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$439.92

last close inside the window, ended May 18, 2026

Peak price

$511.88

peak on February 26, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$551.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$480.00 – $495.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$492.54

published February 17, 2026

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The company is adding smart features and growing its direct business in Europe, which could help sales and profits. However, investors already expect a lot, so the stock can be slow unless the market is willing to pay more. After the recent drop, it may bounce in a few months if buyers step in and overall sentiment stays positive.

Primary drivers

New smart features can keep the company viewed as premium
Growing direct European operations can boost sales expectations
Recent drop creates a tactical entry for a bounce back
Stock moves depend on wider investor appetite for growth names

How it played out

ISRG: bounce fell short of the target

Lyra published ISRG at $492.54 on 2026-02-17, with 12% expected growth and a $551.64 target. The thesis pointed to new smart features, growing direct European operations, a recent drop as a tactical entry for a bounce, and wider investor appetite for growth names.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at $511.88 on 2026-02-26, up 3.9%. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By 2026-05-18, ISRG ended at $439.92. The thesis partially played out early, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-22, Investors.com reported that Intuitive Surgical had beaten first-quarter forecasts and raised its full-year procedure-growth outlook. On 2026-04-22, Barron's reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.50 a share and revenue of $2.77 billion, above the cited Wall Street forecasts.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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