Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT) — closed signal from February 17, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published February 17, 2026
This is a short-term idea tied to the Feb 24 quarterly report and a new deal to grow in Mexico. The stock has been steady, but the earnings news can move the price a lot in either direction, so start small before the report and add only after seeing how the market reacts. Main risk: company guidance being weaker than expected.
Primary drivers
- Earnings on Feb 24 can quickly change the stock price based on guidance
- New Mexico deal adds to the story of growing international locations
- Franchise setup helps keep profits steady if club visits stay healthy
- Big price swings around the event make staged buying sensible
How it played out
PLNT: target missed as shares ended at 52.64
Lyra published PLNT on 2026-02-17 at 93.75 as a short-term idea with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to the Feb. 24 quarterly report, guidance risk, a new Mexico growth deal, the franchise model, and the chance of big price swings around the event.
Inside the window, PLNT peaked at 95.30 on 2026-02-18, with a 1.7% gain. It never reached the 110.63 target. By 2026-05-18, it ended at 52.64. The thesis missed. The stock moved a little higher right after publication, then finished far below the entry price and the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-24, Planet Fitness reported fourth-quarter results and gave 2026 guidance that the article described as weaker than expected. In May 2026, the company lowered its 2026 views after weak signups, according to the article.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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