Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from February 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 18, 2026 — -5.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$52.40 – $54.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$53.52Published — price the day we called it

$58.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$55.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$50.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 35% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-5.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$50.69

last close inside the window, ended May 18, 2026

Peak price

$55.40

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$58.87

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$52.40 – $54.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$53.52

published February 17, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Policy headlines about mortgages and card rates are pushing Bank of America around. That noise can create a short-term chance: if headlines calm, large banks could rally within 0-3 months after the recent drop. The plan is to buy near the lower zone and add gradually if the stock holds. Main risks are renewed regulatory moves or a broad market selloff.

Primary drivers

Fed rules on mortgage capital could help the bank over months
Talk of capping card rates is creating short-term volatility
Large, liquid bank likely to bounce if sector calms
Recent selloff makes risk-reward more attractive near support

How it played out

BAC: the target was not reached

Lyra published BAC on 2026-02-17 at $53.52, with 10% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to mortgage-capital rule headlines, card-rate cap talk, short-term volatility, a possible large-bank bounce if the sector calmed, and a recent selloff near support.

Inside the window, BAC peaked at $55.40 on 2026-04-15, a 3.5% gain. That stayed below the $58.87 target. It never got there. By 2026-05-18, the stock ended at $50.69. The thesis only partly played out: there was a modest rise, but not enough to reach the target, and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-15, Bank of America reported first-quarter net income of $8.6 billion and total revenue of $30.27 billion. On the same date, reports said equities trading revenue rose 30% to $2.8 billion. These were reported events, not stated causes of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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