Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,063.30 Published $1,222.80 Target $988.09 Window close $1,067.00 Peak
$1,045.00 – $1,075.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,063.30Published — price the day we called it
$1,222.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,067.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$988.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,067.00
peak on February 17, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$988.09
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 17, 2026 – May 18, 2026

The thesis — published February 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,222.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,045.00 – $1,075.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,063.30
published February 17, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly is stocking up inventory for a new oral version of its GLP-1 drug ahead of an April decision, growing exports from India, and hitting a gene-editing milestone. The share price has pulled back into a buying range and could rebound in the next 0-3 months if things calm. Main risk: big swings if news on obesity drugs disappoints, so buy in smaller pieces.

Primary drivers

  • Building inventory for an oral GLP-1 launch ahead of an April decision
  • Expanding India manufacturing to export more Mounjaro quickly
  • Progress on a gene-editing partnership that adds future upside
  • Recent pullback gives a lower-risk entry into a long-term growth story

How it played out

LLY: target was not reached

Lyra published LLY on February 17, 2026 at $1063.30, with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to inventory for an oral GLP-1 launch ahead of an April decision, expanding India manufacturing for Mounjaro exports, progress on a gene-editing partnership, and a recent pullback into the stated entry zone.

Inside the window, LLY peaked at $1067 on February 17, 2026, a 0.3% gain. That stayed below the $1222.80 target, so the target was never reached. By May 18, 2026, it ended at $988.09. The thesis did not play out in the measured window.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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