Track record · closed signal

Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) — closed signal from February 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 18, 2026 — +2.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CSWC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$22.40 – $23.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$22.97Published — price the day we called it

$25.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.43Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$23.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$23.57

last close inside the window, ended May 18, 2026

Peak price

$24.43

peak on May 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$25.27

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$22.40 – $23.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$22.97

published February 17, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Capital Southwest recently dropped in price but just declared $0.64 in dividends, which often attracts buyers looking for income. Because it lends to mid-sized companies, its price can recover in a few weeks to months if lending conditions stay calm. Momentum hasn't fully returned, so it's safer to buy in stages. A sudden rush away from risk would hurt this play.

Primary drivers

The $0.64 dividend makes income-focused buyers interested
As a private-credit lender, it can recover if loan conditions stay calm
Recent oversold move raises chance of a rebound toward normal levels
Regular cash payouts and quiet news reduce holder anxiety

How it played out

CSWC: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published CSWC on February 17, 2026 at $22.97, with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to the recent $0.64 dividend, possible buyer interest from income investors, calmer loan conditions for a private-credit lender, an oversold move, regular cash payouts, and quiet news.

Inside the February 17 to May 18 window, CSWC rose but did not reach the $25.27 target. The peak was $24.43 on May 6, a 6.4% gain. It ended at $23.57. The thesis partially played out because the stock rebounded, but it stayed below the target. It never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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