Track record · closed signal

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) — closed signal from July 21, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025 — +58.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CGAU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.19 – $7.43Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.43Published — price the day we called it

$8.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$12.74Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$11.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 49 days.

At window close

+58.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+71.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$11.80

last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2025

Peak price

$12.74

peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.53

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.19 – $7.43

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.43

published July 21, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Centerra’s share price slid 7% even after good drilling news, which suggests sellers may be running out of steam while fresh buying interest builds. On 2 Jul, National Bank raised its price goal, and big investors already own 89% of the stock, showing strong belief. Gold prices often perk up before autumn, and the company is keeping costs steady. Taken together, a move up to about $8.75, or 16% higher, in the next three months looks reachable for patient buyers.

Primary drivers

Very low momentum plus improving recent average price hint the drop may soon reverse.
National Bank lifted its price goal on 2 Jul, giving new support from a major bank.
Large funds own 89% of shares, often keeping the price steadier when markets wobble.
Gold prices often rise before autumn and cheaper borrowing costs help gold miners.

How it played out

CGAU: target reached in 49 days

Lyra published CGAU at $7.43 on 2025-07-21 with a short-term thesis for 16% expected growth. The thesis pointed to weak momentum that might reverse, a National Bank price-goal raise on 2 Jul, large funds owning 89% of shares, steadier costs, and a seasonal setup that could help gold miners.

Inside the window, CGAU reached the $8.53 target in 49 days. The stock kept rising and peaked at $12.74 on 2025-10-16, with a 71.5% peak gain. It ended the window at $11.80. The published thesis played out and more than reached its stated target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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