Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from February 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 17, 2026 — +0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$141.59 Published $164.24 Target $141.97 Window close $179.80 Peak
$138.00 – $143.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$141.59Published — price the day we called it
$164.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$179.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$141.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 60 days.

At window close
+0.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+8.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$141.97
last close inside the window, ended May 17, 2026
Peak price
$179.80
peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
60

The thesis — published February 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$164.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$138.00 – $143.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$141.59
published February 16, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista sells the networking gear that big cloud and AI centers use. Recent news shows record growth and a higher short-term sales forecast, meaning demand is strong. Some deployments are moving to AMD-based systems, so the data-center picture is changing but networks still need upgrades. The stock is pulling back; a safer buy is near support with signs prices are starting up again. Big cloud budget headlines can make the stock swing fast.

Primary drivers

  • Higher near-term sales forecast suggests continued demand for AI networking
  • Ongoing cloud and AI builds keep demand for fast switches strong
  • Shifts in data-center architecture (AMD exposure) keep Arista relevant
  • Better results by buying near support and waiting for upward confirmation

How it played out

ANET: target reached in 60 days

Lyra published ANET at $141.59 on 2026-02-16 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to demand for networking gear used by large cloud and artificial intelligence centers, a higher near-term sales forecast, ongoing cloud builds, data-center architecture shifts tied to AMD exposure, and a pullback toward support.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $164.24 target in 60 days. It later peaked at $179.80 on 2026-04-24, a 27% gain. By 2026-05-17, it ended at $141.97. The thesis played out, even though the move did not hold through the close of the window.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-05, Arista reported first-quarter revenue of $2.71 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.87 per share. It also guided for second-quarter revenue of $2.8 billion at the midpoint.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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