SkyWater Technology, Inc. (SKYT) — closed signal from February 16, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 17, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 58 days.
The thesis — published February 16, 2026
This is a short-term trade based on SkyWater agreeing to buy IonQ at $35 a share. If the deal goes through on time, SkyWater has a clear price path up; if problems appear, especially the reported fraud probe into IonQ, the price can swing widely. Keep positions small and expect headlines to move the stock until the situation is resolved.
Primary drivers
- Acquisition sets a clear $35 reference price if the deal closes
- Price can move higher as deal milestones are met
- Fraud investigation headlines can push the price down and increase swings
- Special-situation trades depend on timing and sentiment; use small sizes
How it played out
SKYT: target reached in 58 days
Lyra published a short-term SKYT thesis on 2026-02-16 at $29.23. It expected 12% growth. The thesis pointed to SkyWater agreeing to buy IonQ at $35 a share, deal milestones that could move the price higher, fraud investigation headlines that could push it down, and wider swings tied to timing and sentiment.
Inside the window from 2026-02-16 to 2026-05-17, SKYT reached the target in 58 days. It peaked at $36.38 on 2026-05-14, above the $32.74 target, with a peak gain of 24.5%. It ended at $34.72. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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