Track record · closed signal

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) — closed signal from February 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 17, 2026 — -8.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.20 – $7.70Entry zone — fair-value band

$7.53Published — price the day we called it

$8.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$7.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$6.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$6.86

last close inside the window, ended May 17, 2026

Peak price

$7.70

peak on February 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$8.28

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.20 – $7.70

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$7.53

published February 16, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Orchid Island is a short-term, income-focused trade that often moves back toward its reported book value but reacts strongly to interest rates and mortgage spreads. The company said book value is about $7.54, near the share price, which can limit downside if rates calm. Ignore a headline about a different firm named Orca. Treat ORC as a small, tactical holding with strict risk limits.

Primary drivers

Price near book value can act like a floor for a tactical bounce
Earnings calls give timely info on holdings and leverage posture
Sensitive to interest rates and mortgage spreads, so price can move fast
Appeals to income investors if bond volatility settles down

How it played out

ORC: the thesis stayed below target

Lyra published ORC at $7.53 on February 16, 2026, with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to price near reported book value, earnings calls, sensitivity to interest rates and mortgage spreads, and possible income-investor interest if bond volatility settled down. It framed ORC as a small, tactical holding with strict risk limits.

Inside the window, ORC peaked at $7.70 on February 23, 2026, a 2.3% gain. The target was $8.28, and the stock never reached it. By May 17, 2026, it ended at $6.86. The thesis only partially played out because there was a small early bounce, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORC signals