Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from February 16, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$354.91 Published $411.70 Target $436.62 Window close $448.45 Peak
$345.00 – $360.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$354.91Published — price the day we called it
$411.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$448.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$436.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

Peak price
$448.45
peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+26.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$436.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
66
Window
February 16, 2026 – May 17, 2026

The thesis — published February 16, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$411.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $360.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$354.91
published February 16, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials is a clear short-term play on AI-related chip equipment demand. A recent settlement ended a US export probe, removing a public worry, and Samsung starting HBM4 shipments plus joining AMAT's EPIC Center adds real evidence of more memory equipment spending. Because the stock has run up, it's safer to buy on controlled pullbacks instead of chasing.

Primary drivers

  • Settlement ended a public investigation and cut uncertainty
  • Samsung shipping HBM4 and joining EPIC Center boosts memory demand case
  • Market leadership can draw investor attention if AI spending stays strong
  • Big, liquid stock makes disciplined buying and selling easier

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published AMAT on 2026-02-16 at $354.91. The thesis expected 16% growth. It pointed to chip equipment demand tied to artificial intelligence, a settlement that ended a public investigation, Samsung HBM4 shipments, Samsung joining AMAT's EPIC Center, market leadership, and the stock's liquidity.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $411.70 target in 66 days. It peaked at $448.45 on 2026-05-11, with a 26.4% peak gain. By 2026-05-17, it ended at $436.62. The thesis played out. It did more than reach the target.

What happened during the window

On May 14, 2026, Applied Materials reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.86 per share on revenue of $7.91 billion. It also guided for fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.16 to $3.56 per share and revenue of $8.45 billion to $9.45 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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