Track record · closed signal

OR Royalties Inc. (OR) — closed signal from February 16, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 17, 2026 — -14.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

OR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$41.80 – $43.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$42.69Published — price the day we called it

$48.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$48.06Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 90% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-14.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.42

last close inside the window, ended May 17, 2026

Peak price

$48.06

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$48.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$41.80 – $43.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$42.69

published February 16, 2026

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

OR Royalties offers a steadier way to gain exposure to gold without depending on any single mine. Recent news - a higher analyst price target and more time to increase a Japan Gold royalty - helps investor confidence and valuation. The stock dropped sharply but has started to rebound toward its recent average price, which raises the chance of a controlled recovery. Still, if gold prices fall, the group can be pressured.

Primary drivers

Higher analyst price target can attract more buyers in the coming quarter
Option to expand Japan Gold royalty adds flexible upside without mine risk
Royalties often weather miner troubles better when costs or operations suffer
Recent rebound toward the recent average price raises odds of a measured recovery

How it played out

OR: peak stayed below target, then shares fell

Lyra published OR Royalties on 2026-02-16 at 42.69, with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to royalty exposure to gold, a higher analyst price target, more time to increase a Japan Gold royalty, and a rebound toward the recent average price. It also noted that weaker gold prices could pressure the group.

Inside the window from 2026-02-16 to 2026-05-17, OR peaked at 48.06 on 2026-02-27, a 12.6% gain. That stayed below the 48.67 target. It never got there. The stock ended at 36.42, so the thesis partially played out early but missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All OR signals