Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from February 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$354.91 Published $425.89 Target $436.62 Window close $448.45 Peak
$345.00 – $360.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$354.91Published — price the day we called it
$425.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$448.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$436.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 80 days.

Peak price
$448.45
peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+26.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$436.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
80
Window
February 15, 2026 – May 16, 2026

The thesis — published February 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$425.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $360.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$354.91
published February 15, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AMAT is a short-term trade tied to spending on AI and advanced memory. Recent news - Samsung pushing HBM4, an EPIC partnership headline, and confirmation the US probe is closed - has increased buying interest. Momentum looks strong, but the stock can drop if the tech sector cools, so prefer buying on retests inside the entry band.

Primary drivers

  • Samsung ramp keeps demand for advanced-memory equipment high
  • US probe being closed removes a major investor worry
  • EPIC partnership news highlights AI infrastructure relevance
  • Analyst upgrades support buying on small pullbacks

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 80 days

Lyra published AMAT on 2026-02-15 at $354.91, with expected growth of 20% and a target of $425.89. The thesis pointed to advanced-memory equipment demand, the US probe being closed, EPIC partnership news tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, and analyst upgrades that supported buying on small pullbacks.

Inside the window, AMAT rose to a peak of $448.45 on 2026-05-11. It reached the target in 80 days and the peak gain was 26.4%. The stock ended the window at $436.62, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On May 14, 2026, Applied Materials reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.86 per share on sales of $7.91 billion. It also forecast adjusted earnings of $3.36 per share on sales of $8.95 billion for the current quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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