Track record · closed signal

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from February 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 15, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$411.66 Published $514.58 Target $724.66 Window close $818.67 Peak
$395.00 – $415.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$411.66Published — price the day we called it
$514.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$818.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$724.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

Peak price
$818.67
peak on May 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+98.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$724.66
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
72
Window
February 14, 2026 – May 15, 2026

The thesis — published February 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$514.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$395.00 – $415.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$411.66
published February 14, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Micron is positioned to bounce in the next few months because AI servers need more high-bandwidth memory and demand looks tight. They say HBM capacity is sold out through 2026 and new HBM4 chips are shipping early, which can help prices. A bank raised its target to $450, but the stock is still recovering and may be volatile.

Primary drivers

  • Sold-out HBM through 2026 should help Micron keep prices strong
  • Early HBM4 shipments show Micron leading in AI memory
  • Price target increase from Morgan Stanley keeps investor focus
  • Stock could rebound if the semiconductor group starts to recover

How it played out

MU: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published MU at $411.66 on February 14, 2026, with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The thesis pointed to sold-out HBM through 2026, early HBM4 shipments, a Morgan Stanley target increase to $450, and a possible semiconductor rebound.

Inside the window, MU reached the $514.58 target in 72 days. It later peaked at $818.67 on May 11, a 98.9% gain, and ended the window at $724.66. The published thesis played out. It got there, then kept going.

What happened during the window

On March 16, 2026, Micron announced high-volume production of HBM4 36GB 12-Hi memory for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. On March 18, 2026, Micron reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $12.20 per share on revenue of $23.86 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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