Track record · closed signal

Seadrill Limited (SDRL) — closed signal from July 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SDRL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$27.00 – $29.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$28.47Published — price the day we called it

$37.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$34.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$30.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$34.68

peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+21.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$30.21

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 2, 2025 – September 30, 2025

The thesis — published July 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+32%

over the measurement window

Target price

$37.58

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$27.00 – $29.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$28.47

published July 2, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

On 18 Jun, Citi called Seadrill the most attractive company in its field. Trading in call options is five times busier than usual, showing many traders expect a rebound in the fees rigs can charge. After falling for over a year, the stock has finally turned up and is holding above its long-term trend line, with the recent average price up 7.8%. Storm season and fresh drilling deals could push shares toward $40, yet the next three months may stay choppy.

Primary drivers

Citi just named SDRL its favorite driller, citing strong cash generation.
Options trading is five times busier, hinting at hopes for higher rig fees.
Recent average price is up 7.8% and the stock sits above its long-term trend.
Storm season could limit rig supply, letting Seadrill charge more and profit.

How it played out

SDRL: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published SDRL at $28.47 on 2025-07-02 with expected growth of 32% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Citi naming Seadrill its favorite driller, options trading five times busier than usual, a recent average price up 7.8%, the stock holding above its long-term trend, storm season, and fresh drilling deals.

Inside the window, SDRL rose but did not reach the $37.58 target. It peaked at $34.68 on 2025-09-17, with a peak gain of 21.8%. It never got there. By 2025-09-30, it ended at $30.21. The thesis partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SDRL signals