Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from February 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$70.89 Published $82.23 Target $74.69 Window close $80.82 Peak
$68.50 – $72.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$70.89Published — price the day we called it
$82.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$80.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$74.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$80.82
peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$74.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 13, 2026 – May 14, 2026

The thesis — published February 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$82.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$68.50 – $72.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$70.89
published February 13, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks like a rebound candidate after a selloff. Its big footprint in rides and delivery helps it recover faster when sentiment improves. The new Mazda deal brings more steady business demand, which supports the recovery story while the stock forms a base. Expect a short-term relief rally if market tone gets better; avoid chasing sudden spikes and use staged buying.

Primary drivers

  • Mazda deal brings more business customers
  • Large scale lets price bounce back faster
  • Efficiency gains can improve profits if things steady
  • Buying in stages controls risk during the base

How it played out

UBER: target not reached after a 14% peak gain

Lyra published UBER at $70.89 on 2026-02-13 with a short-term rebound thesis. It expected 16% growth to $82.23. The thesis pointed to Uber's rides and delivery scale, the Mazda deal bringing more business customers, possible efficiency gains, and staged buying while the stock formed a base.

Inside the window, UBER rose to a peak of $80.82 on 2026-05-07, a 14% gain. It stayed below the $82.23 target and never reached it. By 2026-05-14, it ended at $74.69. The thesis partially played out: the rebound happened, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-06, Uber reported first-quarter revenue of $13.2 billion and gross bookings of $53.72 billion. Trips rose 20%. On 2026-05-06, MarketWatch reported that Uber's delivery gross bookings rose 28% to $25.99 billion, while mobility gross bookings rose 25% to $26.39 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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