Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 14, 2026 — -4.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,030.00 – $1,070.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,055.62Published — price the day we called it

$1,161.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,067.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$1,006.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+10%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$1,006.70

last close inside the window, ended May 14, 2026

Peak price

$1,067.00

peak on February 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,161.18

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,030.00 – $1,070.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,055.62

published February 13, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is a big pharmaceutical company that grows steadily and recently strengthened its future by buying Orna and updating partnerships. The stock dipped enough to consider buying now, and being a large company means big investors may flow back in over the next few months. Main risk: headlines and regulations about weight-loss drugs can make the price swing, so prefer buying on pullbacks instead of chasing a fast rise.

Primary drivers

Growing drug lineup through acquisitions and partnerships
Stable growth profile that holds up in uncertain markets
Size and liquidity make it attractive to big investors on dips
Obesity and diabetes treatments remain a long-term growth story

How it played out

LLY: target was not reached

Lyra published LLY on 2026-02-13 at $1055.62. The thesis expected 10% growth to $1161.18. It pointed to a growing drug lineup through acquisitions and partnerships, a stable growth profile, size and liquidity that could attract large investors on dips, and obesity and diabetes treatments as a long-term growth story.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at $1067 on 2026-02-17, a 1.1% gain. That stayed below the $1161.18 target. It ended the window at $1006.70 on 2026-05-14. The thesis did not play out in the measured period.

What happened during the window

On April 1, 2026, the FDA approved Lilly's oral weight-loss drug orforglipron, sold as Foundayo. On April 30, 2026, Lilly reported first-quarter results, including $12.9 billion in GLP-1 drug sales, according to MarketWatch.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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