Maplebear Inc. (Instacart) (CART) — closed signal from February 13, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published February 13, 2026
Instacart reported solid results and raised expectations, with growth across its shopping marketplace, tools for stores, and advertising business. The company is buying back shares and expanding its Costco partnership in Europe, which could increase demand. After a recent drop, the stock may recover in the next few months but can move quickly, so keep position sizes sensible.
Primary drivers
- Better results and guidance that could change how investors value the stock
- Share buybacks that help support the price when it falls
- Costco Europe deal that could bring noticeable new demand
- Multiple revenue streams reducing reliance on any single part of the business
How it played out
CART: thesis partly played out, target missed
Lyra published CART at $39.16 on February 13 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to better results and guidance, share buybacks, a Costco Europe deal, and revenue across the marketplace, store tools, and advertising business. It expected a short-term recovery after a recent drop.
Inside the window, the stock rose to a peak of $44.77 on April 21, a 14.3% gain. It stayed below the $46.99 target. By May 14, it ended at $38.47. The thesis partly played out, because the stock rose for a time, but it never got there.
What happened during the window
On May 6, Instacart reported first-quarter revenue of $1.02 billion and net income of $144 million. It also gave second-quarter guidance for gross transaction value of $10.1 billion to $10.25 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.