Track record · closed signal

RTX Corporation (RTX) — closed signal from February 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 13, 2026 — -11.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

RTX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$200.63 Published $220.69 Target $178.11 Window close $214.50 Peak
$196.00 – $203.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$200.63Published — price the day we called it
$220.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$214.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$178.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-11.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+9.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$178.11
last close inside the window, ended May 13, 2026
Peak price
$214.50
peak on March 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published February 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$220.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$196.00 – $203.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$200.63
published February 12, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

RTX is in an industry people need, and recent news is mixed: a strong demo of counter-drone tech could lift confidence, but reports of Pentagon scrutiny over delays create short-term worry. That makes a cautious plan sensible: consider buying only if the stock drops to a supportive area and then shows it can hold there before adding more.

Primary drivers

  • Defense demand and positive counter-drone headlines
  • Chance to rebound if selling calms near support
  • Commercial airplane recovery helps revenue later
  • Pentagon scrutiny raises risk of bad headlines

How it played out

RTX: target was not reached in the window

Lyra published RTX at $200.63 on February 12, 2026, with a short-term expectation of 10% growth. The thesis pointed to defense demand, positive counter-drone headlines, a possible rebound near support, later help from commercial airplane recovery, and the risk that Pentagon scrutiny could bring bad headlines.

Inside the window, RTX rose but did not reach the $220.69 target. The stock peaked at $214.5 on March 3, 2026, a 6.9% gain. It never got there. By May 13, 2026, it ended at $178.11. The thesis partially played out, then failed to hold.

What happened during the window

On April 21, 2026, RTX reported higher first-quarter profit and sales, raised its full-year adjusted earnings and sales guidance, and said backlog was $271 billion. This was a company report during the measurement window, not an explanation for the share move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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