Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from February 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$128.50 – $132.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$131.62Published — price the day we called it

$142.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$134.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$131.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$134.69

peak on February 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$131.47

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 12, 2026 – May 13, 2026

The thesis — published February 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$142.15

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$128.50 – $132.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$131.62

published February 12, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Walmart has an earnings call on Feb 19 and a recent higher price target, which can push the stock up before or after the report if results and guidance look good. The risk is that many investors already expect good news, so gains may be limited unless you buy on a pullback or after the price holds following a jump. Treat as a small-upside, cautious trade.

Primary drivers

Earnings date brings extra attention and bigger price moves
Analyst price-target bump can make investors more positive
As a defensive retailer, it tends to hold up in weak markets
Better returns when buying dips or after a steady post-jump hold

How it played out

WMT: target was not reached

Lyra published WMT at $131.62 on 2026-02-12, with 8% expected growth and a $142.15 target. The thesis pointed to the Feb. 19 earnings call, a recent higher price target, defensive retail behavior in weak markets, and better odds from buying dips or waiting for a steady hold after a jump.

Inside the window, WMT peaked at $134.69 on 2026-02-17, a 2.3% gain. It stayed below the $142.15 target and never got there. The window ended on 2026-05-13 at $131.47. The thesis only partially played out: the stock rose early, but the expected move did not arrive.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-19, Walmart reported fourth-quarter revenue of $190.7 billion, up 5.6%, and operating income up 10.8%. On the same date, Investor's Business Daily reported adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share, revenue of $190.65 billion, a $30 billion buyback plan, and a 5% dividend increase.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All WMT signals