Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) — closed signal from February 12, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 13, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published February 12, 2026
Selling has pushed the stock down a lot, but new product news for power and gas risk management makes the company more attractive to big institutional buyers. The setup is for a short-term rebound, so consider a small buy near current support and wait for signs the stock is stabilizing before increasing size.
Primary drivers
- New energy risk product may draw institutional customers and sales
- Price has fallen and could bounce back as selling eases
- Subscription model means revenue can be valued higher if buyers return
- Near-term buy has limited downside if entered close to support
How it played out
CWAN: rebound stayed below target
Lyra published CWAN at $23.63 on 2026-02-12 with an 18% expected gain and a $27.88 target. The thesis pointed to new energy risk products, a possible rebound after selling, subscription revenue that could be valued higher if buyers returned, and limited downside near support.
Inside the window, the stock rose, but only modestly. It peaked at $24.42 on 2026-05-12, with a 3.3% peak gain, and it never reached the target. It ended at $24.34 on 2026-05-13. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed on magnitude.
What happened during the window
On April 23, 2026, the European Commission approved the Warburg Pincus, Permira, and Clearwater Analytics case and said the transaction raised no competition concerns in the European Economic Area.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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