The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from July 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 21, 2025
Schwab’s strong earnings pushed the share price up 18% in one day and excitement is very high, but the stock is now about 8% above its recent average price. Cash coming into Schwab accounts keeps growing and new around-the-clock trading is a plus, yet the jump looks a bit stretched. If the price cools down to about $92-94, buyers could step in again and aim for about $110 within three months. Such pauses after big moves are common and can give new investors a safer starting point.
Primary drivers
- Big earnings surprise lifted the stock sharply, making it one of the day’s top movers.
- The jump looks overdone short term, so a sideways period is likely before next climb.
- Client assets grew over $45B last quarter, bolstering dependable fee income.
- Longer trading hours could boost transaction revenue over the next year.
How it played out
SCHW: target was not reached inside the window
Lyra published SCHW at $95.26 on July 21, 2025, with expected growth of 15% and a target of $108.93. The thesis pointed to a big earnings surprise, a sharp move that looked stretched, client assets growing over $45B last quarter, and longer trading hours as a possible revenue boost.
Inside the window, SCHW peaked at $99.14 on August 13, 2025, a 4.1% gain. It stayed below the target. By October 19, 2025, it ended at $93.87. The thesis partially played out on a modest early rise, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On October 16, 2025, Barron's reported that Schwab's third-quarter adjusted earnings were $1.31 per share and revenue was $6.1 billion. It also reported core net new assets of $137.5 billion and total client assets of $11.59 trillion. These were company results during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the price move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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