Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences (GILD) — closed signal from February 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$148.00 – $154.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$153.50Published — price the day we called it

$165.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$157.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$134.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$157.29

peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$134.94

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 11, 2026 – May 12, 2026

The thesis — published February 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$165.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$148.00 – $154.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$153.50

published February 11, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead looks like a safer growth pick for the next quarter because its HIV business is strong, but recent revenue guidance was weaker than analysts expected and that pushed the stock down. That drop could be a chance to buy if the price holds this lower level. Expect steady gains, not sudden jumps, and keep position sizes moderate.

Primary drivers

HIV business provides steady, predictable revenue and stability
The guidance-driven pullback creates a lower-risk buying opportunity
Health-care exposure reduces risk from swings in cyclical and tech stocks
Upcoming product launches could improve sentiment if they show progress

How it played out

GILD: the target was never reached

On 2026-02-11, Lyra published a short-term GILD thesis at $153.50. It expected 8% growth and pointed to a steady HIV business, a guidance-driven pullback, health-care exposure, and possible product-launch progress. The setup called for steady gains, not sudden jumps.

Inside the window, GILD peaked at $157.29 on 2026-02-11, with a 2.5% gain. It stayed below the $165.78 target and never reached it. By 2026-05-12, it ended at $134.94. The thesis missed on price action, even though the stock did make a small early move in the right direction.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-07, Gilead agreed to buy Tubulis for $3.15 billion. On 2026-05-07, Gilead reported first-quarter results and cut its 2026 profit outlook because of acquired research and development charges and acquisition financing costs.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All GILD signals