Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 11, 2026 — -8.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,015.00 – $1,060.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,051.90Published — price the day we called it

$1,178.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,067.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$966.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$966.99

last close inside the window, ended May 11, 2026

Peak price

$1,067.00

peak on February 17, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,178.12

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,015.00 – $1,060.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,051.90

published February 10, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly pulled back recently but still has good news: a gene-editing partnership and a planned acquisition that keep its drug pipeline growing. Because momentum is weak, this is a short-term trade idea for the next 0-3 months - buy on price weakness, add only after the price stops falling, and avoid buying when the stock is rising fast.

Primary drivers

New gene-editing partnership strengthens future drug lineup
Planned acquisition supports longer-term growth story
Healthcare status makes the stock relatively steady in rough markets
Price has room to bounce after a prolonged pullback

How it played out

LLY: target missed inside the window

Lyra published LLY at 1051.90 on 2026-02-10 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to a new gene-editing partnership, a planned acquisition, healthcare steadiness, and room for a bounce after a prolonged pullback. It was a short-term idea for the next 0-3 months, with caution around weak momentum.

Inside the window, LLY peaked at 1067 on 2026-02-17. That was a 1.4% peak gain, but it stayed below the 1178.12 target. The target was never reached. By 2026-05-11, the stock ended at 966.99. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-20, Lilly announced a deal to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion. On 2026-04-30, Lilly reported first-quarter GLP-1 sales of $12.9 billion and raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $82-$85 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals