Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,051.90 Published $1,178.12 Target $966.99 Window close $1,067.00 Peak
$1,015.00 – $1,060.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,051.90Published — price the day we called it
$1,178.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,067.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$966.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,067.00
peak on February 17, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$966.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 10, 2026 – May 11, 2026

The thesis — published February 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,178.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,015.00 – $1,060.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,051.90
published February 10, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly pulled back recently but still has good news: a gene-editing partnership and a planned acquisition that keep its drug pipeline growing. Because momentum is weak, this is a short-term trade idea for the next 0-3 months - buy on price weakness, add only after the price stops falling, and avoid buying when the stock is rising fast.

Primary drivers

  • New gene-editing partnership strengthens future drug lineup
  • Planned acquisition supports longer-term growth story
  • Healthcare status makes the stock relatively steady in rough markets
  • Price has room to bounce after a prolonged pullback

How it played out

LLY: target missed inside the window

Lyra published LLY at 1051.90 on 2026-02-10 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to a new gene-editing partnership, a planned acquisition, healthcare steadiness, and room for a bounce after a prolonged pullback. It was a short-term idea for the next 0-3 months, with caution around weak momentum.

Inside the window, LLY peaked at 1067 on 2026-02-17. That was a 1.4% peak gain, but it stayed below the 1178.12 target. The target was never reached. By 2026-05-11, the stock ended at 966.99. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-20, Lilly announced a deal to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion. On 2026-04-30, Lilly reported first-quarter GLP-1 sales of $12.9 billion and raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $82-$85 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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