Track record · closed signal

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — closed signal from July 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2025 — +2.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEGA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$50.40 – $52.89Entry zone — fair-value band

$52.16Published — price the day we called it

$70.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$60.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$53.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$53.35

last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2025

Peak price

$60.94

peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$70.34

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$50.40 – $52.89

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$52.16

published July 21, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock is up 75% this year but has cooled to about $52, an area where buyers often step in. Results due 22 Jul could move the price quickly, and a new five-year AI partnership with Amazon Web Services could boost growth for years. Shares cost 4.8 times next-year sales versus 8 times for rivals, and sales beat forecasts by 33%. A rise toward $70 in the next few months looks realistic.

Primary drivers

5-year AI deal with Amazon could lift cloud sales and make competitors think twice.
22 Jul earnings report is close and may push the stock up quickly.
Price has settled into a base pattern that often leads to fresh upward moves.
Valued at 4.8x next year's sales, roughly 40% below similar software firms.

How it played out

PEGA: target was not reached

Lyra published PEGA on 2025-07-21 at $52.16. The thesis expected 35% growth toward $70.34 over a short-term window. It pointed to the five-year artificial intelligence deal with Amazon Web Services, the 2025-07-22 earnings report, a base pattern near $52, and a valuation of 4.8 times next-year sales versus 8 times for rivals.

Inside the window, PEGA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $60.94 on 2025-09-24, with a peak gain of 16.8%. It never got to $70.34. The signal ended at $53.35 on 2025-10-19. The thesis partially played out, but the published target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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