Track record · closed signal

New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from February 9, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 10, 2026 — +10.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NGD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.60 – $11.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$10.99Published — price the day we called it

$13.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 92% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+10.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+23%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$12.16

last close inside the window, ended May 10, 2026

Peak price

$13.52

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$13.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.60 – $11.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$10.99

published February 9, 2026

Confidence

89%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

New Gold reported record production at Rainy River and generated $205 million in free cash flow, which is attracting upgraded analyst forecasts. A takeover by Coeur Mining is in late regulatory review and could set a timetable for a price move. The stock recently pulled back, so a short-term rebound within 0-3 months is possible if the price holds its current floor. Main risks are the exact timing of the deal and wild swings in metal prices.

Primary drivers

Record Rainy River output and strong cash flow
Takeover by Coeur advancing through approvals
Recent pullback offers a clear dip-buy opportunity
Higher metal prices could boost gains further

How it played out

NGD: target missed after a 23% peak

Lyra published NGD on 2026-02-09 at 10.99, with 25% expected growth and a 13.74 target. The thesis pointed to record Rainy River output, $205 million in free cash flow, upgraded analyst forecasts, a Coeur Mining takeover in late regulatory review, a recent pullback, and possible support from higher metal prices.

Inside the 2026-02-09 to 2026-05-10 window, NGD rose to 13.52 on 2026-02-27, a 23% peak gain. It stayed below the 13.74 target. The signal ended at 12.16. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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