New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from February 9, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 10, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published February 9, 2026
New Gold reported record production at Rainy River and generated $205 million in free cash flow, which is attracting upgraded analyst forecasts. A takeover by Coeur Mining is in late regulatory review and could set a timetable for a price move. The stock recently pulled back, so a short-term rebound within 0-3 months is possible if the price holds its current floor. Main risks are the exact timing of the deal and wild swings in metal prices.
Primary drivers
- Record Rainy River output and strong cash flow
- Takeover by Coeur advancing through approvals
- Recent pullback offers a clear dip-buy opportunity
- Higher metal prices could boost gains further
How it played out
NGD: target missed after a 23% peak
Lyra published NGD on 2026-02-09 at 10.99, with 25% expected growth and a 13.74 target. The thesis pointed to record Rainy River output, $205 million in free cash flow, upgraded analyst forecasts, a Coeur Mining takeover in late regulatory review, a recent pullback, and possible support from higher metal prices.
Inside the 2026-02-09 to 2026-05-10 window, NGD rose to 13.52 on 2026-02-27, a 23% peak gain. It stayed below the 13.74 target. The signal ended at 12.16. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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