Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 9, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,060.00 – $1,095.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,084.30Published — price the day we called it

$1,192.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,106.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$948.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$1,106.94

peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$948.45

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 9, 2026 – May 10, 2026

The thesis — published February 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,192.73

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,060.00 – $1,095.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,084.30

published February 9, 2026

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly looks like a steady, defensive drug company that just added an acquisition (Orna) which keeps investors focused on its future medicines. Legal headlines around the drug category add noise but also show Lilly's central role. The stock fell recently, so a short-term rebound is possible, but expect swings driven by news.

Primary drivers

Orna deal brings new drug opportunities and headlines
Leading position in GLP-1 drugs supports steady demand
Healthcare exposure can be resilient when markets wobble
Recent pullback may allow a short-term rebound trade

How it played out

LLY: thesis missed as the target was never reached

Lyra published LLY at $1084.30 on 2026-02-09 with 10% expected growth and a $1192.73 target. The thesis pointed to the Orna deal, Lilly's leading GLP-1 position, defensive healthcare exposure, and a recent pullback that could support a short-term rebound trade.

Inside the window, LLY peaked at $1106.94 on 2026-02-09, a 2.1% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By 2026-05-10, the stock ended at $948.45. The thesis missed. The rebound was small and early, then the stock finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-09, Lilly agreed to buy Orna Therapeutics for up to $2.4 billion. On 2026-04-30, Lilly reported first-quarter GLP-1 sales of $12.9 billion and raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $82 billion to $85 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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