Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from February 9, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 10, 2026 — +11.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$185.00 – $195.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$193.10Published — price the day we called it

$227.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$217.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$215.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+11.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$215.20

last close inside the window, ended May 10, 2026

Peak price

$217.80

peak on May 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 9, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$227.86

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$185.00 – $195.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$193.10

published February 9, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is the leading company for AI chips. Recent announcements - a big AI spending commitment and financing to help customers buy Nvidia chips - make it likely demand stays strong. The price has pulled back a bit and could be volatile short-term; a strategy of buying small drops may work over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Big AI spending plans should keep demand steady for several quarters
New financing helps customers buy and deploy Nvidia chips faster
Being the market leader can draw investors back when markets recover
Buying small drops helps limit risk while market stays uneven

How it played out

NVDA: target missed, peak gain was 12.8%

Lyra published NVDA on 2026-02-09 at 193.1 with an 18% expected gain and a 227.86 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, large spending plans, customer financing, market leadership, and buying small drops during an uneven market.

Inside the 2026-02-09 to 2026-05-10 window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The highest price was 217.8 on 2026-05-08, with a 12.8% peak gain. It ended at 215.2. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals