Track record · closed signal

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) — closed signal from February 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.30 – $12.90Entry zone — fair-value band

$12.71Published — price the day we called it

$14.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 35% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$13.24

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$12.28

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 8, 2026 – May 9, 2026

The thesis — published February 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.24

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.30 – $12.90

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$12.71

published February 8, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term rebound tied to two acquisitions: Webster Financial and the UK TSB bid. News about the deals can push the stock up, and the recent pullback makes buying in stages sensible. Keep tight stop rules because the shares are sensitive to interest-rate moves and any delays or problems finishing the deals.

Primary drivers

Deal news on Webster and TSB can attract buyers quickly
Growing into new markets can help future sales mix
Recent drop offers a chance to buy with clearer downside limits
Big bank size means easier trading and lower execution snags

How it played out

SAN: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published SAN on 2026-02-08 at 12.71, with a short-term rebound thesis and expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to deal news on Webster and TSB, growth into new markets, the recent drop, and the stock's large-bank liquidity.

Inside the window, SAN peaked at 13.24 on 2026-02-25, a 4.2% gain. That stayed below the 14.24 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-05-09, it ended at 12.28. The thesis partially played out: the stock rose early, but the move faded and missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-29, Banco Santander reported first-quarter profit of 5.455 billion euros and ordinary profit of 3.560 billion euros. On 2026-05-01, Reuters reported that Sabadell had completed the sale of TSB to Santander.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SAN signals