Track record · closed signal

Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from February 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$129.69 Published $147.85 Target $123.77 Window close $136.49 Peak
$124.50 – $131.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$129.69Published — price the day we called it
$147.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$136.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$123.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$136.49
peak on February 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$123.77
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 8, 2026 – May 9, 2026

The thesis — published February 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$147.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$124.50 – $131.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$129.69
published February 8, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Blackstone could rebound in the next few months as investors move money out of big tech and back into financials and everyday businesses. Recent earnings beat and a big data-center loan tie it to AI infrastructure work. The stock pulled back, so it could bounce if markets calm and borrowing costs don't spike; higher credit stress is the main risk.

Primary drivers

  • Money moving into financials can help managers like Blackstone
  • Better-than-expected earnings support fee growth expectations
  • Large data-center loan links the firm to AI infrastructure demand
  • Recent pullback offers a bounce chance with limited downside

How it played out

BX: thesis rose early but missed the target

Lyra published BX at 129.69 on 2026-02-08 with 14% expected growth and a 147.85 target. The thesis pointed to money moving into financials, better-than-expected earnings, a large data-center loan tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure demand, and a recent pullback that could leave room for a bounce.

Inside the window, BX reached its peak quickly. It rose to 136.49 on 2026-02-12, a 5.2% peak gain, but it stayed below the 147.85 target. It ended the window at 123.77 on 2026-05-09. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-23, Blackstone reported first-quarter results. The company reported distributable earnings of $1.76 billion and assets under management of $1.3 trillion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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