Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,035.00 – $1,065.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,058.18Published — price the day we called it

$1,185.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,106.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$948.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$1,106.94

peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$948.45

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 8, 2026 – May 9, 2026

The thesis — published February 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,185.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,035.00 – $1,065.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,058.18

published February 8, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares look poised for a short-term rebound because headlines are shifting away from worries about drug prices toward actions that improve patient access and updates on Lilly's drug pipeline. Joining the TrumpRx program and the Innovent deal calmed investors this week. Risk remains if new pricing or payment problems emerge and slow the recovery.

Primary drivers

TrumpRx step may ease near-term pricing worries
Innovent deal gives more future drug opportunities
Big-company stability helps steady a bounce
Demand for defensive growth if markets stay mixed

How it played out

LLY: rebound thesis stayed below target

Lyra published LLY at $1058.18 on 2026-02-08. The thesis expected 12% short-term growth. It pointed to TrumpRx as a step that may ease near-term pricing worries, the Innovent deal as a source of future drug opportunities, big-company stability, and demand for defensive growth if markets stayed mixed.

Inside the window, LLY rose to a peak of $1106.94 on 2026-02-09. That was a 4.6% peak gain, but it stayed below the $1185.16 target. It never got there. By 2026-05-09, it ended at $948.45. The rebound happened only partly, then faded.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-31, Lilly agreed to buy Centessa Pharmaceuticals, a deal tied to neuroscience and sleep medicine. On 2026-04-30, Lilly reported first-quarter results and raised its 2026 revenue forecast.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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