Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,058.18 Published $1,185.16 Target $948.45 Window close $1,106.94 Peak
$1,020.00 – $1,070.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,058.18Published — price the day we called it
$1,185.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,106.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$948.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,106.94
peak on February 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$948.45
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 7, 2026 – May 8, 2026

The thesis — published February 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,185.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,020.00 – $1,070.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,058.18
published February 7, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is seen as a safer growth pick because it sells popular diabetes and weight-loss medicines and a big bank recently reaffirmed a positive view. The company is getting more consumer marketing for its GLP-1 drugs, which can keep buyers interested even when markets rotate. The stock pulled back recently, so the idea is to buy in the dip and expect a controlled rebound while watching for policy or drug pricing headlines that could move the shares.

Primary drivers

  • Leading GLP-1 drugs keep customer demand strong
  • Positive analyst notes help steady investor sentiment
  • Healthcare exposure can soften portfolio drops
  • Buying the pullback lets you aim for a rebound without chasing

How it played out

LLY: the 12% rebound thesis did not reach target

Lyra published LLY at $1058.18 on 2026-02-07 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to demand for diabetes and weight-loss medicines, positive analyst notes, healthcare exposure, and a pullback that could allow a controlled rebound. The target was $1185.16.

Inside the window, LLY rose quickly but not far enough. It peaked at $1106.94 on 2026-02-09, a 4.6% gain, and never reached the target. By 2026-05-08, it ended at $948.45. The thesis partially caught an early bounce, but the published rebound did not play out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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