Track record · closed signal

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) — closed signal from February 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 7, 2026 — -3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MUFG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.70 – $19.30Entry zone — fair-value band

$19.06Published — price the day we called it

$21.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$18.39Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$18.39

last close inside the window, ended May 7, 2026

Peak price

$20.15

peak on February 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.35

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.70 – $19.30

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$19.06

published February 6, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

MUFG is a large Japanese bank that looks like a steadier pick to bounce back over the next 0-3 months. Recent headlines about currency swings and central bank talk can move bank shares quickly, but MUFG's nine-month results and an earnings snapshot suggest the recent drop is more about short-term market moves than the company's health.

Primary drivers

Currency news can make bank stocks move fast
Recent reports show the bank's books and earnings are solid
A recent oversold move creates a chance to rebound without big policy changes
High trading liquidity helps if the market moves quickly

How it played out

MUFG: target was not reached

Lyra published MUFG on 2026-02-06 at 19.06 for a short-term window ending 2026-05-07. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to currency news, central bank talk, solid books and earnings, an oversold move, and high trading liquidity as reasons the stock could rebound within 0-3 months.

Inside the window, MUFG rose to 20.15 on 2026-02-12, a 5.7% peak gain. That stayed below the 21.35 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-05-07, it ended at 18.39. The thesis partly played out early, but it missed the published target and closed below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MUFG signals