Track record · closed signal

The Boeing Company (BA) — closed signal from February 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$236.00 – $246.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$243.48Published — price the day we called it

$287.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$247.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$231.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 10% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$247.86

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+1.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$231.03

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 6, 2026 – May 7, 2026

The thesis — published February 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$287.31

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$236.00 – $246.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$243.48

published February 6, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Boeing's price moves are being driven mostly by news, not steady business trends. Recent reports about possible China plane orders and big airline fleet talks can quickly raise hope for more deliveries and revenue. The stock pulled back, so it could bounce in the next 0-3 months, but headlines can swing the price both ways and operational or regulatory problems still create big risk.

Primary drivers

Talk of China orders can change expectations for future deliveries
Airline fleet talks can quickly shift investor mood
Recent pullback makes a short-term rebound possible
Operational or regulator problems could still cause big drops

How it played out

BA: target was not reached

Lyra published BA on Feb. 6 at $243.48 with an expected 18% short-term rise and a $287.31 target. The thesis pointed to possible China plane orders, airline fleet talks, a recent pullback, and the risk that operational or regulatory problems could still hurt the stock.

Inside the window, BA peaked at $247.86 on Feb. 10, up 1.8%. It stayed below the target. The stock ended the window at $231.03 on May 7. The published rebound thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On April 1, the Defense Department announced a seven-year agreement with Boeing tied to PAC-3 missile seeker capacity. On April 22, Boeing reported first-quarter results, including $22.2 billion in sales and a $7 million loss.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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