Track record · closed signal

Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) — closed signal from February 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 7, 2026 — +2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CWAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$22.70 – $24.30Entry zone — fair-value band

$23.80Published — price the day we called it

$27.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$24.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$24.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$24.30

last close inside the window, ended May 7, 2026

Peak price

$24.35

peak on May 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$27.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$22.70 – $24.30

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$23.80

published February 6, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Clearwater is a software company that may bounce back soon. A fund publicly added shares and the company integrated with TreasurySpring to make cash management more useful for clients, which strengthens the growth story. The stock fell recently, so a rebound over the next few months is possible if selling calms down. Risk remains higher until the price steadies.

Primary drivers

A public fund buying shares shows institutional interest and support
Integration with TreasurySpring makes the product more useful for customers
Recent heavy selling could reverse if demand returns
When software stocks regain favor, prices can move up quickly

How it played out

CWAN: target was not reached by May 7

Lyra published CWAN on February 6, 2026 at $23.80 for a short-term window ending May 7, 2026. The thesis looked for 16% growth toward $27.60. It pointed to public fund buying, a TreasurySpring integration, a possible rebound after recent heavy selling, and the chance that software stocks could move up quickly if demand returned.

Inside the window, CWAN rose, but only slightly. The peak was $24.35 on May 7, with a 2.3% gain. It never reached $27.60. The stock ended at $24.30. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CWAN signals