Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from February 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 7, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$180.62 Published $223.97 Target $211.50 Window close $216.83 Peak
$174.00 – $183.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$180.62Published — price the day we called it
$223.97Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$216.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$211.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$216.83
peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$211.50
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 6, 2026 – May 7, 2026

The thesis — published February 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$223.97
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$174.00 – $183.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$180.62
published February 6, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the main company people watch when companies spend on AI hardware. Recent reports show chip demand is still growing and big tech firms keep buying for their data centers. After a recent tech selloff, the market is starting to steady, which can help fast recoveries in top names. This is a short-term dip buy idea for 0-3 months; wait until selling calms.

Primary drivers

  • News about higher chip demand supports continued AI spending
  • Big tech plans to keep buying for data centers sustain demand
  • When the wider tech market steadies, leaders often rebound quickly
  • Strong company fundamentals attract buyers on pullbacks

How it played out

NVDA: rose 20% but never reached the target

On Feb. 6, 2026, Lyra published NVDA at $180.62 as a short-term dip buy idea for 0-3 months. The thesis expected 24% growth and pointed to growing chip demand, big tech data center buying, a steadier wider tech market, and strong fundamentals attracting buyers on pullbacks.

Inside the window from Feb. 6 to May 7, NVDA rose, but it did not reach $223.97. The peak was $216.83 on Apr. 27, a 20% gain. It ended at $211.50. The thesis partially played out. Price action followed the direction, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On February 26, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that Nvidia posted Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $68.127 billion and fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.938 billion. The article said data center revenue was $62.314 billion for the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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