Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from February 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 6, 2026 — +31.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$323.73 Published $388.48 Target $425.44 Window close $437.68 Peak
$310.00 – $330.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$323.73Published — price the day we called it
$388.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$437.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$425.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 69 days.

At window close
+31.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+35.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+8.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$425.44
last close inside the window, ended May 6, 2026
Peak price
$437.68
peak on May 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
69

The thesis — published February 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$388.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$310.00 – $330.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$323.73
published February 5, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade idea: Broadcom could bounce because big cloud companies signaled more AI spending, which should help demand for Broadcom parts. But overall tech markets are fragile after recent macro-driven selling, so don't assume an immediate sustained rally. The plan is to buy in stages as selling eases and to cut losses quickly if semiconductors weaken again.

Primary drivers

  • Big cloud companies signaling more AI spending helps Broadcom demand
  • Demand for AI networking and custom chips is a strong long-term tailwind
  • Recent pullback could offer a rebound chance, but moves may be fast
  • The stock needs the broader semiconductor group to calm to sustain gains

How it played out

AVGO: target reached in 69 days

Lyra published AVGO at $323.73 on February 5, 2026, with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to higher artificial intelligence spending from big cloud companies, demand for networking and custom chips, a rebound after a pullback, and the need for the broader semiconductor group to calm.

Inside the window, AVGO reached the $388.48 target in 69 days. It peaked at $437.68 on May 6, 2026, for a 35.2% gain. It ended at $425.44. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On March 4, 2026, Broadcom reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share on revenue of $19.31 billion. It also forecast fiscal second-quarter revenue of $22 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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