Track record · closed signal

The Boeing Company (BA) — closed signal from February 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$230.00 – $242.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$238.53Published — price the day we called it

$271.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$247.86Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$229.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$247.86

peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$229.93

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 5, 2026 – May 6, 2026

The thesis — published February 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$271.92

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$230.00 – $242.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$238.53

published February 5, 2026

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Boeing's recent news-better-than-expected results, a return to profit, and new MAX orders-creates a chance for the stock to recover in the near term. That recovery will likely be uneven because any production or regulatory setback could push the stock down again. Treat gains as tradeable moves and keep clear stop limits to control risk.

Primary drivers

Positive profit/earnings news lifted near-term mood
Strong aircraft demand is supporting new orders
Visible progress can make the stock look more valuable
Operational or regulatory problems can quickly reverse gains

How it played out

BA: the target was not reached

Lyra published BA at $238.53 on 2026-02-05 with a short-term thesis for 14% growth. The thesis pointed to better-than-expected results, a return to profit, new MAX orders, strong aircraft demand, visible progress, and the risk that operational or regulatory problems could reverse gains.

Inside the window, BA rose only briefly. It peaked at $247.86 on 2026-02-10, a 3.9% gain, and stayed below the $271.92 target. By 2026-05-06, it ended at $229.93. The thesis partially played out early, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-11, Barron's reported that Boeing had delivered 51 planes in February 2026, including 43 737 MAX jets, while delaying some 737 MAX deliveries after finding scratched wiring on undelivered planes. On 2026-04-22, The Wall Street Journal reported Boeing's first-quarter 2026 results, including a $7 million net loss and $22.2 billion in sales.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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