Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from February 5, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 6, 2026 — +18% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$168.00 – $178.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$176.14Published — price the day we called it

$220.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$216.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$207.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 92% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+18%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+23.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$207.83

last close inside the window, ended May 6, 2026

Peak price

$216.83

peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$220.18

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$168.00 – $178.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$176.14

published February 5, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia looks like a buy because the wider tech market has been sold down while big customers keep planning heavy AI spending. That keeps long-term demand intact even as prices fall. The stock could wobble before settling, but it trades easily, so buying in stages near the listed zone and watching volatility may capture a rebound over about three months.

Primary drivers

Market sell-off creates a buying chance in a liquid AI leader
Big customer spending plans support long-term demand
Fund and ETF moves can speed rebounds once selling slows
High volatility means quick swings; use strict size and risk control

How it played out

NVDA: thesis nearly reached the target but missed

Lyra published NVDA at 176.14 on 2026-02-05 with 25% expected growth and a 220.18 target. The thesis pointed to a market sell-off creating a buying chance, large customer spending plans, fund and ETF flows that could help a rebound, and high volatility that could produce quick swings.

Inside the window ending 2026-05-06, NVDA rose to 216.83 on 2026-04-27, a 23.1% peak gain. It stayed below the target. It ended at 207.83. The thesis partly played out, but the target was not reached.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-16, Nvidia announced the Vera Rubin Space Module at GTC 2026. On 2026-05-06, Nvidia and Corning announced an optical fiber partnership tied to three new U.S. manufacturing facilities.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals